Twitter, twitter, twitter…

After my little break I have just started catching up on things. One thing that seems to happened in my absence is that Twitter seems to have taken over the social media landscape. Everyday there is a new update on twitter – a new feature, a new stat about the number of users or a new celebrity story.

I do think that Twitter is a great app (I have been using it for over a year now)  - beautifully designed and thought out – but things are getting a wee bit hysterical with all the hype. The reason for all this hype seems to be that twitter is really targeted to media personalities – to people who make money from influencing other people and are comfortable in the spotlight – and these people are the ones doing all the hyping. Imagine news written by students…It will be all facebook all the time.

Now is twitter really useful or popular with non-media types? If you are not looking to influence other people, does it makes sense to tweet? Can twitter provide value to students or plumbers or nurses? If you just want to talk with your friends or connect with a group, I just don’t see the value proposition being very strong. There are better tools like facebook, myspace etc. that provide much better tools and access control for your conversation.

Another angle that is getting hyped up is the real-time search.  A number of people seem to be suggesting that Twitter = Real-time Search. To me twitter is an important source of information for real-time search but its not real-time search. For my real-time search I would like to get a larger data set that includes information from facebook feed, LinkedIn, myspace, blogs, bulletin boards recently updated sites etc. Now given the current stage of search (Google) this kind of near real-time access to latest information is not available. Perhaps that is why Twitter with its real-time database that does not require any extensive crawling and indexing works as a proxy real-time search. Longer term, though, saying twitter is real-time search seems similar to saying yahoo directory (from 10-12 years back) was the internet. Remember how that worked out for Yahoo!.

Update: Check out this interesting post from MediaPost that echos some of the same sentiments.

Update: Check out this interesting post from Brian Solis’s blog (Brian has been an early adopter of twitter and is a passionate user)

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Social Media Trends

Check out Universal McCann report on social media…Some interesting points:

73% of all users have read a blog

184M bloggers – which means a whole lot more blogs than that…Check out our old numbers here

Categorization of posts:

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57.5% belong to a social network (pretty amazing)…What are these guys doing?

Picture 3

Overall pretty good report…

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Observations from India

We just got back from an extended break in India. Some observations:

1. Election buzz is everywhere in India.

2. North India seems to be a whole lot more engaged in the elections compared to the south.

3. Roads, railways and airlines infrastucture is much improved in India…Now if they can solve the last mile problem for travel.

4. In the villages, a lot more people are excercising these days. Over a number of trips, I saw kids from villages and cities alike, getting up early in the morning and running on the roads, parks and streets. Gone are the days when I used to be the only person running. People and dogs no longer look at you with interest, if you are running. Very welcome change.

5. Yoga has taken off in India. All my relatives are all over it. Based on some convincing testimonials I decided to attend a yoga camp as well. 

Yoga is really focused on exercising the internal organs of the body and it really works. Interesting that all the voice training exercise for singers in the west are practically copied from Yoga (here, here etc.).

6. Lucknow is the place to go for authentic kababs. The kabab’s are called tunde kabab’s are somewhat like aloo tikkies and are served with special parathas  and roomali rotis. All I can say is yum!!! (check out the video of the scene of crime). 

7. Olive oil is still hard to find in India. In a superstore in Pilani, where the owner insisted that they had olive oil, I finally located it in the hair oil section. Apparently the shop owner believes that the only possible use of olive oil is for hair care. 

8. IPL cricket is doing really well this year despite being in South Africa. Its and interesting mixture of sports and entertainment with bollywood stars as owners of teams (great investment buying a team btw). There is even a gossip blogger for the IPL now. 

preity-zinta-ipl-pics-9

9. DVR’s and HD TV are finally available in India and they work good. 

10. Credit cards are accepted pretty much everywhere in cities these days…Not so much in towns and villages. (Not one store accepting credit card in Pilani e.g.)

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Blog is now active

Back from India. I am reactivating this blog and assigning a new domain name as well. This blog will now be a whole lot more active. 

Update your links….

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SezWho on ReadWriteWeb

Check it out here…

Thanks Richard…Great job putting the piece together and with all the pics etc.

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Latest posts

Check out

Irrational behavior at eBay

Updates on SezWho…here and here

Check out our new location at SezWho Blog.

For those of you using RSS, please update your reader to point to our new RSS feed.

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Moving!!!

I want to apologize for being tardy in posting last month…We have been busy moving our blog over to a new location.

Check out our new location at SezWho Blog.

For those of you using RSS, please update your reader to point to our new RSS feed.

The URL for the feed is: http://www.sezwho.com/blog/wp-rss.php

We will no longer be updating this blog…In any case, drop by and say hi at our new digs.

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How much is your privacy worth?

Fascinating post on MSNBC about the price users put on Privacy…The post talks about experiments where users were asked how much they value their private data. Customers were asked the question in two ways:

  • How much are customer willing to pay to protect their privacy?
  • How much do customers want to be paid to share their private information?

As expected customers wanted a whole lot more money to share their private information while very few were willing to pay to anything to protect that information. I think people have this assumption about privacy that its something they just have…and I think its an artifact of how things used to be before everything changed because of technology. We now need to reexamine our assumptions about how much we really value privacy and come up with a more rational value (rather then have endowment effect and other psychological factors skew our judgement) … This is too important for everybody.

Posted in Anonymity, Identity, Privacy, Reputation | Leave a comment

Online Ads Market

I have been meaning to do a summary of online Ad spending and the trends for a while…So it was good to see this piece in WSJ by Emily Steel that had a lot of numbers and trends:

So the current numbers are “Internet advertising has grown into a $16.9 billion industry — 5.9% of the $285 billion total U.S. advertising market in 2006, up from 4.7% in 2005, according to the Interactive Advertising Bureau.”

The article has a good cast of characters that make up the online ads space. Below is my summary of all the species:

Paid Search

  1. Search Sites: Up until now, paid search has benefited just a handful of players, particularly Google and Yahoo because those ads have mostly attracted smaller businesses that don’t use ad agencies.
  2. SEO Agencies: With bigger companies becoming more involved in paid search, agencies and search-marketing firms are playing a greater role. Also firms have sprung up to help marketers design their Web sites to make it easier for search engines to understand what information appears there. The goal of this “search-engine optimization” is for a company’s Web site to show up at the top of a search engine’s free results listings when a person is looking for information related to that particular company or industry.

Branding Ads (banner ads, animated adds,  etc.)

  1. Digital Ad agencies: ads are usually designed by digital ad agencies and then transported to various Web sites through a circuitous route often involving a number of technology-focused companies. It is this area that has seen most of the acquisition activity in recent weeks, as bigger ad players try to streamline the online advertising process. For example, Avenue A/Razorfish bought ad space on a total of 863 individual sites last year for its clients, which include Kraft Foods Inc., Walt Disney Co. and Nike Inc. To line up all that space, Avenue A/Razorfish used firms that deal with hundreds or thousands of Web sites.
  2. Ad Networks: Ad networks, buy space from sites and resell it to advertisers at a premium. Among the major ad networks are Advertising.com, acquired in 2004 by Time Warner Inc.’s AOL, and 24/7 Real Media.
  3. Ad-serving firms: Ad-serving firms are technology companies that get the ads from the advertiser to the Web sites that the ad network firms have lined up. The top two ad-serving companies are DoubleClick and Atlas, another unit of aQuantive. Ad-serving companies save the digital information that creates an online ad on a computer server and then deliver that data to the sites where marketers bought advertising space. This lets ad agencies change the contents of an online ad or where it runs on a site by switching that digital information on the computer server instead of communicating with each of the hundreds of sites where an ad might appear.

Some ad-serving companies also have ad-network arms. DoubleClick, for example, provides both these services for advertisers and Web sites.

Based on the action in the space you can see where the online ad market is going towards…while paid search is the cash cow, Branding seems to be future opportunity…Looking at the numbers there is huge room for growth.

(Numbers etc. borrowed heavily from the WSJ piece).

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Open Source Economics

Also available on RWW

Since we are talking about open source, a definition of the subject from Wikipedia is in order:

“Open source is a set of principles and practices that promote access to the production and design process for various goods, products, resources and technical conclusions or advice. The term is most commonly applied to the source code of software that is made available to the general public with relaxed or non-existent intellectual property restrictions. This allows users to create user-generated software content through incremental individual effort or through collaboration.”

In the area of computers and Internet, open source movement is almost as old as computers themselves. In the beginning there was Multics, Unix, BSD, Minix etc. Than came Richard Stallman’s GPL, GNU and FSF. That was followed by Linux, Apache and many more projects. Over time open source movement has begun extending to things beyond software and technology to include media (video, pics and blogs etc.), creative content (creative commons) and communities.

Since open source movement affects our lives in more and more ways, let’s take a look at how the open source model is interacting with our market driven economic system.

Open Source Business Models

The heightened level of interest in open source model has lead companies to start looking for ways to add value to the process of open source development and distribution in order to make money from it. Some of the models/approaches that have emerged are:

  • Develop the product and open it up to the community: The main goals for the businesses here are two fold:
    • Generate marketing buzz
    • Leverage the skills/people in the community to enhance the product.

Businesses make money by selling add on software modules or services to customers using the open source technology. Some of the examples of this model are Eclipse (IBM), Netscape, Linux, and recently Solaris (Sun) etc. While this model sounds attractive as a way to reduce development costs, there are plenty of other expenses for the businesses. Businesses need to create and participate in boards (Sometime controlled by the business, sometimes not) to chart a sensible product direction, to manage licensing issues and to put together a well tested base distribution bundle. Working on a board staffed with community members and sometimes even competitors can be an expensive and time consuming process.

  • Take an Open Source product and provide support and services to enterprises: There are a number of companies like MySQL, Zmanda, RedHat etc. that provide such services. The business model is all about building up the volume and driving up the percentage of paying customers (typically less than 2% of the customers pay) for customer support or other services.
  • Provide open source platforms: There are a number of sites/projects like sourceforge.net, google code and even YouTube or FaceBook that provide platforms for open source like collaboration. The business model typically is to provide the basic services for free and make money via ads by driving the page views.

The value of the open source is pretty clear to customers as they get the product and services they want without having to pay for the underlying product…But who else is extracting the rents in open source related economic activity? Let’s look at the value accruing to three important stakeholders – Businesses, Customers and Contributors.

Value to open source businesses

Some have argued that businesses are capturing the lion share of the value of open source at the expense of contributors and customers. This point of view is expressed by Dirk Riehle (leads the open source research group at SAP Research) in his recent paper on the topic. Dirk argues that businesses derive the maximum benefit because:

  • Customers want a deployed solution, so service companies (like IBM) that use the open source software, just make up for the free open source software by increasing the price of the service. This increase directly goes to their bottom line.
  • Businesses benefit as employers, because larger talent pool due to non-proprietary nature of open source, enables businesses to have a stronger negotiating position compared to the individual developers.

Besides the obvious conflict on interests (Dirk works for SAP which isn’t big on open source and competes with IBM which is), Dirk makes the first point without pointing to any data. I find it hard to believe that customers don’t see a lowered bill when open source software is used compared to proprietary software.

For his point #2, Dirk again, provides no facts but makes a general assertion. I believe that the people who contribute to open source are self motivated people who enjoy programming and as such get a higher salary compared to people who do not participate in open source.

Also from the open source businesses point of view, if we consider the costs associated with managing, engaging and participating with the community, I am not sure the open source businesses will come out with lower costs, compared to non-open source businesses.

Overall it seems to me that open source businesses have significant costs and barriers to profitability and are certainly not capturing the majority of value in open source transactions.

Value to Customers

Customers using open source benefit a great deal.

  • Free software makes it easy to get started.
  • Using open source enables customers to avoid the dreaded vendor lock-in. So if customers are using open source they are able to change providers if they are not particularly happy with the service provided by the vendor. Open source provides them with huge leverage with service providers.
  • The customers benefit as they have a larger talent pool to hire from and they don’t have to pay proprietary vendors for all sorts of “certifications” etc.

Overall the customers come out well ahead by using open source technology. In fact, were it not for the LAMP (Linux, Apache, MySQL and Php, Python, Perl etc.) stack, startups costs would have been a lot higher then they are today and we would not be seeing the amount of innovation we are seeing in the field of Internet and Technology.

Value to Contributors

Contributors to open source also benefit from participating:

  • It used to be the case that contributors did not get paid for their contributions and had to work on their own time, but things are changing. With the popularity of the open source projects, more companies are paying contributors to support the community or are even contributing proprietary modules to the community. This provides direct incentives to contributors to work with the community.
  • Open source participation is a great way to establish creadibility of you are a programmer…Have you seen ads like these?“With your resume, please include some php and javascript code snippets or refer us to an open source project you’ve worked on.”
  • Most good open source developers have an opportunity to become public voice of the project. This extended role for engineers not only means an ego boost but also translates to higher salaries etc.

Overall developers working on open source come out ahead by participating in the open source projects.

Conclusion

Open source movement has become a powerful value creator. In addition it has created an interesting and somewhat egalitarian wealth distribution mechanism, where on one hand it has made it hard for one stakeholder to extract inordinate rent, on the other hand it has created right incentives for a lot of people to participate and have a stake in its success. No wonder it is becoming a popular model for more and more businesses and social activities.

Posted in Identity, online communities, Open-Source, Social Media | 1 Comment